I've been trying to resolve some contradictions in the explanation of the current situation in Australia and what it reveals about what might happen in America.
Their firearm confiscation program started in 1996. A nice, round, 25 years ago. The Australians I have met think that was the best thing since sliced bread, and that Americans are barbarians on par with Klingons for not doing the same.
They are currently being corralled in their homes, arrested if they go out, and facing surprise visits from the police to prove they are staying home. Protesters are beat with batons and shot with rubber bullets. People who still refuse to go along are removed from their homes and taken to quarantine camps.
Americans point out that this is the exact reason for the Second Amendment, and that is the only reason it is not happening here.
After a lot of deflection about the stolen American election and lack of an armed revolution from the Australians, they will claim that "almost no Australian firearms were turned in, we hid most of them", and it is implied that they are waiting for the right moment.
The conversation usually ends with observing the obvious: "If now ain't the right moment, then you wasted a lot of effort hiding firearms and skirting the law for the same result as turning them in to begin with".
I have also read, with regard to the effort to confiscate arms in America, that "Most Americans will turn them in without an argument.".
I have a lot of difficulty understanding how Australians hid all their firearms without turning in many or most of them, but Americans are expected to line up with a smile at the idea of losing hundreds of dollars per firearm, and more for the stack of crap that goes with each one.
A couple more issues making the situation in Australia less advantageous:
The population of Australia was 17 million in 1996. It is 26 million now. Over a 50% increase. And the number of firearms is the same or less than what was hidden away in 1996. I'll guess that in 1996, there was not four or five firearms per person, and enough hidden for 25 years to arm every citizen. Probably also not a stockpile of thousands of rounds per person in the growing population to make each firearm operable as more than a paper weight.
The thing I am getting at is that gun confiscation is a really bad thing on day one. But even with the "I lost all mine in a tragic boat capsizing incident", and everyone just hiding what they own now, that just caps the quantity of firearms. The firearm per prospective combatant ratio starts getting worse on that day, and after 25 years, it's going to be really bad.
So the issue is not only confiscation, but preventing interruption in the manufacturing and sale.